Mobile devices

Tesla’s market valuation hit today $225 Billion, more than the valuation of any other auto manufacturer. Tesla is not the only manufacturer of electric vehicles, but it leads the automotive industry with its lithium-ion battery technology.

The battery is the product differentiator for electric vehicles, stationary energy storage and many consumer devices. Each category is pushing the specifications of the battery — and they all share similar themes: more charge capacity, faster charging, battery longevity, less weight, less cost, and absolute safety!

Many manufacturers shy away from sharing lessons learned from deploying batteries in large volume. In some respect, it is understandable — the battery is a competitive advantage. But by keeping opaque, the end user suffers. At Qnovo, we have installed our battery management solutions on well over 100 million smartphones. Along the way, we learned a few important things. I will share here two observations:

1. Optimizing between performance, cost and safety needs smart software: 

Innovation in materials is important but increasingly insufficient to give end users the experience they deserve. The battery has grown from nearly 1,500 mAh in early smartphone models (the original iPhone’s battery capacity was 1,400 mAh) to a whopping 5,000 mAh in 2020 models to accommodate 5G networks. With the increase in capacity and energy density comes a slew of headaches with little margin for error: maintain the battery’s longevity; provide fast charging; minimize battery swelling, all simultaneously. Optimizing between strict performance specifications, pressure to source from lower cost battery manufacturers in China, and absolute safety is no longer exclusively in the realm of materials. Instead it demands battery intelligence and smart software.

Similarly, electric vehicles are under similar constraints. More driving range; faster charging; extreme temperatures; minute manufacturing defects; and immense cost pressures make battery design a difficult task. It is no surprise that auto OEMs now rank battery management software as critical to their systems. They are also becoming more involved in the design and manufacturing of batteries. For instance, Apple designs its own batteries in Cupertino, and BMW invested €200 million in a battery cell competence center in Munich.

So what can intelligent battery management software do? Here’s one representative data point. Our average longevity over 100 million smartphones shipping with our solutions is 1,900 cycles at 25 °C, and an incredible 1,300 cycles at the punishing temperature of 45 °C. Otherwise, an average smartphone will last between 500 and 1,000 cycles. Increasing longevity raises the available capacity and use time, improves the battery’s health and safety, reduces its swelling to make thin smartphones, and gives the end user a far better overall battery experience. 

2. Improvement in safety requires more predictive smart software:

The cell voltage rose from a safe 4.2V in early smartphone models to 4.47V in the newest 5G models — needed to add more energy to the battery. At these high voltages, the margin of safety is razor thin: battery swelling, extreme temperatures, user abuse, minute manufacturing defects, fast charging all contribute to an elevated risk of battery failure or fire!

Safety data from the field indicate that unsafe battery failures are approximately 10 to 20 parts per million (ppm) — these lead to property damage or personal injury to the user. Any industry with failure rates in ppm can laud its accomplishments; but ppm levels are grossly inadequate for batteries. There are approximately 1.5 billion new smartphones sold worldwide every year. At ten ppm, there are 15,000 unsafe smartphone incidents annually! This is not acceptable. 

It is incorrect to assume that the industry can improve battery failure rates solely by tightening battery manufacturing processes. It is true that battery manufacturing defects contribute to failure — but defects are not the only reason why battery may catch fire. Improper operation, poor smartphone design and specifications, and user abuse can all lead to premature unsafe failure. Battery manufacturers, especially in China, are also reluctant to add more controls and cost to their manufacturing processes — battery manufacturing remains an industry with little or no profits.

Let’s step back for a moment and briefly examine a different industry: lens making. Historically, making high quality lenses for photography was a specialty left to a few companies in Germany and Japan, e.g., Leica, Nikon and Canon. They excelled at their manufacturing prowess and accuracy. Then innovation struck in the form of cameras embedded in smartphones. These used cheap plastic lenses but corrected for their optical deficiencies using software. Images from modern smartphone cameras can surpass the quality of those from expensive DSLR cameras. The camera  industry showed that it can substitute manufacturing accuracy with computation, the latter being enormously less costly.

We use a similar philosophy to improve the safety of batteries. We recognize that manufacturing defects are part of building batteries. We use predictive algorithms to identify these defects long before they become a safety hazard, then manage the operation of the battery to reduce the risk of a failure. The result is that there were zero unsafe failures over 100 million smartphones in the field. 

While the current situation has put us all in unfamiliar territory, one bright spot has been the willingness of so many people and organizations to offer advice and assistance. With hundreds of millions of us isolated in our homes, making especially intensive and important use of our phones and computers, it seems like an opportune moment to share four battery-specific recommendations that can help ensure your personal safety and extend the lifespans of all our devices as we adjust to this period of uncertainty, and WFH normalcy.

First, and most imperatively in the near term, never ignore a battery that is swelling. This can happen over the course of just a few days, especially in aging devices, and is a sign of internal failure that can put you and your family at risk of fire or injury. If your phone starts bulging or separating, even slightly, or your laptop or tablet won’t sit flat, its battery is likely swelling. In this case, stop using the device immediately and contact its manufacturer for help. Second, watch out for heat. If the backside of your phone gets uncomfortably hot while it’s charging, that’s a warning sign, and once again time to contact the device manufacturer. More broadly, avoid placing devices in high-heat situations, especially when charging. The classic case is of a ride-share driver, with their windshield-mounted phone continuously charging while baking in direct sun, but it can also occur at home if your phone is charging on a sunny windowsill, above a radiator, or nestled into a blanket. The combination of an elevated charge situation and high ambient heat may increase the risk of a fire and is certain to degrade a battery’s health prematurely. More detail about heat and batteries can be found here.

Third, be especially careful with aftermarket batteries and chargers, even ones that carry a familiar brand name, because counterfeiting has become more and more common, and incentives to do so will only increase during a global emergency. This is a good reason to extend the life of your original batteries for as long as possible. While it can be annoying when smartphone manufacturers restrict users and unauthorized repair shops from doing battery replacements, it’s done in part because there’s ample evidence that fake replica batteries have a much higher risk of fire than authentic ones, and because the replacement process is often not straightforward. Likewise, cheap chargers can create overheating by delivering too much current, which can create a similar fire risk for your batteries.

Finally, extending the lifespan of our phones, laptops, tablets, and other daily-use devices will take on extra importance, especially with phone prices creeping into four digits. In my experience, preserving battery health is the single best way of doing this. I wrote some time ago about basic strategies; here are some updated recommendations to consider:

• Avoid “fast-charge” approaches and use the lowest amount of charging current possible. Although it takes longer, charging your phone from a computer using a USB cable is much gentler on the internals of the battery. (Note that this principle also applies to electric vehicles – super-fast charging stations are hard on your vehicle battery.)
• Avoid charging your phone overnight, because it’s better to not keep the battery at 100 percent charge for extended periods. I aim to keep my charge levels between 25 and 85 percent unless I’m traveling, and my year-old smartphone battery health has not degraded at all.
• Per the previous point, Apple’s iOS operating system offers battery health monitoring, and in the newest version(13.0)  the option of “Optimized Battery Charging,” which learns your daily charging routine. This is worthwhile, and we’re starting to see other manufacturers and even mobile operators become more attuned to this type of functionality, particularly in Asia.

We all have plenty to worry about in these unusual times; hopefully these bits of advice will help prevent battery-related problems from adding to your load.

Whether related to the stock market, presidential elections or climate, December is the month to make predictions for the coming year and decade. So what battery trends should we expect for the upcoming 2020-2030 decade?

1.Lithium-ion batteries will power more applications — electrification of everything:  The 2019 Nobel Prize in Chemistry highlights the progress lithium-ion batteries achieved in the past four decades. From a laboratory experiment in the 1970s, they are now ubiquitous in consumer devices. Increasingly, they are making inroads in transportation and grid storage applications. 

There is no question that the 2020s are the decade of electrification of transportation, from electric vehicles to buses and trucks. The number of available electric-vehicle (EV) models jumped from about ten in 2015 to over 75 in 2020, including categories of sports cars, sedans, SUVs and light trucks. Automotive companies and their supply chain are inexorably transforming. This will not be an easy transformation — there will be winners and losers. Car manufacturers and Tier-1 suppliers that will not adapt in the next couple of years risk becoming irrelevant. The nature of skilled labor in transportation is also transforming. Labor unions are taking notice but much training is needed for this new labor force.

Electric utilities will implement more energy storage projects on their grids — partly driven by regulations as well as the proliferation of clean-energy grids with distributed wind and solar generation. 

Industrial applications with historically smaller unit volumes will benefit from the increased proliferation of lithium-ion batteries. As communities seek cleaner air, we will see local regulations banning just about anything powered by fossil fuel, from forklifts to lawnmowers.

2. Batteries will deliver better performance but with optimized compromises:

Bill Gates’ famous quote in 1981 “640KB ought to be enough [memory] for everybody” stands as a stark reminder that there is not enough of a good thing. Just like computers flourished with more computational power and memory, mobility will continue to thrive with more available battery capacity. Next-generation 5G wireless smartphones require more battery capacity. Electric vehicle drivers require longer driving ranges (300+ miles). More battery capacity means a continued drive to look for newer materials with higher energy density. 

The public will become more discerning and expecting better battery warranties. Longer cycle life (lifespan) while fast charging will become a standard of performance especially in transportation.

But at what cost? Manufacturers will learn to optimize the battery’s capacity, size, cycle life and charging time to the target application or user case. Electric vehicles in fleets will have  vastly different battery designs than those for, say, residential commuters. Backup batteries used in conjunction with solar power will be even more different. Buyers of electric vehicles will learn how to make informed choices based on the battery. Much like buyers historically learned to understand the difference between 4- and 8-cylinder engines, they will become more literate in understanding the differences between kWh-ratings.

3. Battery prices will continue to decline, but at a slower pace:

The cost of lithium-ion batteries declined in the past decade from over $1,100 per kWh to $150 per kWh in 2019. Forecasters expect this figure to drop below $100 in 2023. At such levels, electric vehicles will reach cost parity with traditional vehicles using internal combustion engines (ICE) — without government buyer incentives. Driven by scale, increased volumes, and a dominant battery manufacturing based in China, standard batteries are increasingly become commoditized. Supply chains are becoming more specialized in addressing the commoditization of batteries. In an effort to improve the profitability of EV models, auto manufacturers will increasingly apply traditional cost disciplines to their battery supply chain, spanning improved manufacturing efficiencies to hedging. A few select applications in need of higher performance will benefit from new developments in advanced materials, e.g., providing higher energy density, albeit at a higher cost, but probably with limited penetration.

The risk of trade tensions with China will continue to loom over the battery supply chain. Even as lithium-ion battery manufacturing facilities come online in other parts of Asia and Europe, China will continue to dominate the lithium-ion battery supply chain, from sourcing raw materials to final assembly. The United States federal and state governments will need to formulate clear policies to address the rapid transition to a battery-centric transportation system — or risk escalating trade tensions with China around battery technologies and manufacturing.

4. Batteries will become safer in the field:

Smartphones routinely catch fire in many parts of Asia — and it’s not even headline news. That will change. That must change. The expected standard of battery safety must improve substantially, especially as larger battery capacities become available (in electric vehicles or electric grids). Efficient inspection methods at the manufacturing site and intelligent battery management systems in the field can improve battery safety by orders of magnitude. 

Yet, it is sadly inevitable that battery fires will become headline news in the future before the industry invests heavily in improving battery safety, possibly even with intervention of some governments.

5. Governments will step in to regulate the recycling of lithium-ion batteries:

The industry will recognize that the recycling of lithium-ion batteries is existential to its future growth. The impact of lithium-ion batteries on the environment, from mining raw materials to disposal of depleted batteries, will be devastating if economic recycling methods are not put in place. For example, lead acid batteries are the no. 1 recycled consumer item in the United States with a recycling rate in excess of 99%. Unfortunately, history shows that governments will need to step in and regulate certain recycling targets for lithium-ion batteries. 

New menu settings inside Apple’s iPhones display a warning sign if the device’s battery is not recognized as authentic. Other smartphone manufacturers are curbing users and unauthorized repair shops from replacing the battery.

Why it matters: Smartphone manufacturers and Apple say that their actions guarantee the integrity and safety of the batteries by preventing the possible use of counterfeit batteries. Some users have objected citing a right to repair.

Users perceive batteries as consumable:

• Historically, smartphones had externally removable batteries.
• After the introduction of the iPhone, all smartphone OEMs followed Apple by making the battery non-removable.
• This design change was necessary to make smartphones thin and light.
• Batteries are sophisticated components inside a precision-engineered smartphone. Much like other internal components, such as memory or display, they are increasingly difficult and expensive to replace. 
• A botched battery replacement can lead to a fire.
• The historical perception of batteries as consumables is no longer true. 

Why fake batteries are a real problem: 

• Fake replica batteries are inexpensive counterfeits largely from China, made by manufacturers with limited control on quality.
• Statistics show that counterfeit batteries have a much higher prevalence of fires than authentic batteries.
• Detecting counterfeit batteries is not easy without the use of battery intelligence.

Why smartphone OEMs do not sell batteries:

• Replacing the battery inside a smartphone is a complex operation with risk of damage to the battery. 
• Recall the Samsung Note 7 fires were connected to the mechanical sizing of the battery inside the smartphone causing a mechanical dent in the battery.
• To be safe, smartphone manufacturers direct users to qualified repair shops.

What smartphone owners can do:

• Take actions to ensure that your battery outlasts the rest of your smartphone. Avoid super fast charging if you can. Avoid charging overnight to 100%. Avoid hot temperatures.
• If you ever have to get your battery replaced, get it done at an authorized repair shop where the battery can be traced to a trusted manufacturing source.

Some time in August of 2013, hackers breached Yahoo! servers and stole private account information for up to 3 billion users. Verizon Communications received a $350 million discount in the price of its acquisition of Yahoo! in 2017, exemplifying the staggering costs of one single encounter with cyber risk.

The concept of risk and risk management is not new. In 1688, Edward Lloyd set up what would become today Lloyd’s of London to contain the emerging risks of the new and growing maritime trans-Atlantic trade. Since then, the business world has worked diligently to contain such risk in everything from food to the Internet.

Actually, almost everything. One such modern risk that remains inadequately addressed is battery safety, specifically the safety of lithium-ion batteries that are so ubiquitous. To be fair, industry has recognized long time ago the safety hazards surrounding the lithium-ion battery. Battery fires in the early 2000s caused expensive recalls. But they were largely treated as one-off events. These were times when the annual volume of batteries was a few hundred millions. These fires were not treated as an on-going risk. They were seen as failures in manufacturing that could be eliminated by improvements in factories or designs.

Today’s battery shipments have skyrocketed to billions of units and counting. Even a minuscule chance of battery fire becomes a real problem when multiplied by the sheer volume of batteries. Battery failures are an ongoing risk that needs to be contained.

Estimates place the risk of battery fire in the range of a few to tens of parts-per-million (or ppm). One ppm means that for every one million units shipped, there is a risk that one of them will catch fire. It does not mean that one *will* catch fire. It just means that statistically speaking, the probability of a fire is one in a million. Now that seems like a small number. You might tell a precious love that they are “one in a million.” In an industry that ships two billion smartphones annually, that translates to several thousand battery fires annually! Not acceptable! We need to bring this figure down by a factor of 100 or 1,000.

Edward Lloyd’s business was possible because it had its underpinnings in the mathematical advances of probability pioneered by Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat early in the 17th century. In that same vein it is possible to make great improvements in battery safety because it leverages the advances in computation of the past 50 years.

Every smartphone is a miracle device. It contains a processor that is infinitely more powerful than the computer that landed Apollo 11 on the moon. It also contains sophisticated electronics that can measure minute voltages and currents, and in turn it is very telling of the chemical reactions inside the battery. Merge it all with intelligent software, and we can now predict what the battery’s health will be in the future.

But why can’t we just manufacture the perfect battery that will never catch fire? Simply put, it is prohibitively expensive. Consider this: nearly every person with a smartphone is also an amateur photographer. Despite the fact their camera lens is optically deficient, software allows them to take incredible photographs.

The same goes for batteries. Manufacturing batteries in large volumes means that some will have defects. That’s just the balance between quality and cost when it comes to battery manufacturing in large scale. To make matters more challenging, every person will use or abuse their battery in unpredictable ways. It becomes essential to catch and screen these few bad batteries in the field before they become a hazard. Naturally, this is not meant to supersede good manufacturing practices, but rather to complement them in our quest to reduce battery fires to zero.

So how does it work? I talked in the past about electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). It is a workhorse test instrument in battery laboratories around the world. It is capable of measuring the chemical processes that are taking place inside the battery. Now imagine if you had such a similar tool inside your device. With some expertise, you can now start making smart decisions about your battery. This is not a new concept; a similar concept, for instance, allows glucose measuring devices to save the lives of millions of diabetics.

It’s high time we get serious about battery health and safety. Let’s address this risk before it escalates. The spread between device capabilities and battery threats is only growing — let’s get smart and manage potential incidents before they blow up into something bigger.