Mobile devices

Whether related to the stock market, presidential elections or climate, December is the month to make predictions for the coming year and decade. So what battery trends should we expect for the upcoming 2020-2030 decade?

1.Lithium-ion batteries will power more applications — electrification of everything:  The 2019 Nobel Prize in Chemistry highlights the progress lithium-ion batteries achieved in the past four decades. From a laboratory experiment in the 1970s, they are now ubiquitous in consumer devices. Increasingly, they are making inroads in transportation and grid storage applications. 

There is no question that the 2020s are the decade of electrification of transportation, from electric vehicles to buses and trucks. The number of available electric-vehicle (EV) models jumped from about ten in 2015 to over 75 in 2020, including categories of sports cars, sedans, SUVs and light trucks. Automotive companies and their supply chain are inexorably transforming. This will not be an easy transformation — there will be winners and losers. Car manufacturers and Tier-1 suppliers that will not adapt in the next couple of years risk becoming irrelevant. The nature of skilled labor in transportation is also transforming. Labor unions are taking notice but much training is needed for this new labor force.

Electric utilities will implement more energy storage projects on their grids — partly driven by regulations as well as the proliferation of clean-energy grids with distributed wind and solar generation. 

Industrial applications with historically smaller unit volumes will benefit from the increased proliferation of lithium-ion batteries. As communities seek cleaner air, we will see local regulations banning just about anything powered by fossil fuel, from forklifts to lawnmowers.

2. Batteries will deliver better performance but with optimized compromises:

Bill Gates’ famous quote in 1981 “640KB ought to be enough [memory] for everybody” stands as a stark reminder that there is not enough of a good thing. Just like computers flourished with more computational power and memory, mobility will continue to thrive with more available battery capacity. Next-generation 5G wireless smartphones require more battery capacity. Electric vehicle drivers require longer driving ranges (300+ miles). More battery capacity means a continued drive to look for newer materials with higher energy density. 

The public will become more discerning and expecting better battery warranties. Longer cycle life (lifespan) while fast charging will become a standard of performance especially in transportation.

But at what cost? Manufacturers will learn to optimize the battery’s capacity, size, cycle life and charging time to the target application or user case. Electric vehicles in fleets will have  vastly different battery designs than those for, say, residential commuters. Backup batteries used in conjunction with solar power will be even more different. Buyers of electric vehicles will learn how to make informed choices based on the battery. Much like buyers historically learned to understand the difference between 4- and 8-cylinder engines, they will become more literate in understanding the differences between kWh-ratings.

3. Battery prices will continue to decline, but at a slower pace:

The cost of lithium-ion batteries declined in the past decade from over $1,100 per kWh to $150 per kWh in 2019. Forecasters expect this figure to drop below $100 in 2023. At such levels, electric vehicles will reach cost parity with traditional vehicles using internal combustion engines (ICE) — without government buyer incentives. Driven by scale, increased volumes, and a dominant battery manufacturing based in China, standard batteries are increasingly become commoditized. Supply chains are becoming more specialized in addressing the commoditization of batteries. In an effort to improve the profitability of EV models, auto manufacturers will increasingly apply traditional cost disciplines to their battery supply chain, spanning improved manufacturing efficiencies to hedging. A few select applications in need of higher performance will benefit from new developments in advanced materials, e.g., providing higher energy density, albeit at a higher cost, but probably with limited penetration.

The risk of trade tensions with China will continue to loom over the battery supply chain. Even as lithium-ion battery manufacturing facilities come online in other parts of Asia and Europe, China will continue to dominate the lithium-ion battery supply chain, from sourcing raw materials to final assembly. The United States federal and state governments will need to formulate clear policies to address the rapid transition to a battery-centric transportation system — or risk escalating trade tensions with China around battery technologies and manufacturing.

4. Batteries will become safer in the field:

Smartphones routinely catch fire in many parts of Asia — and it’s not even headline news. That will change. That must change. The expected standard of battery safety must improve substantially, especially as larger battery capacities become available (in electric vehicles or electric grids). Efficient inspection methods at the manufacturing site and intelligent battery management systems in the field can improve battery safety by orders of magnitude. 

Yet, it is sadly inevitable that battery fires will become headline news in the future before the industry invests heavily in improving battery safety, possibly even with intervention of some governments.

5. Governments will step in to regulate the recycling of lithium-ion batteries:

The industry will recognize that the recycling of lithium-ion batteries is existential to its future growth. The impact of lithium-ion batteries on the environment, from mining raw materials to disposal of depleted batteries, will be devastating if economic recycling methods are not put in place. For example, lead acid batteries are the no. 1 recycled consumer item in the United States with a recycling rate in excess of 99%. Unfortunately, history shows that governments will need to step in and regulate certain recycling targets for lithium-ion batteries. 

New menu settings inside Apple’s iPhones display a warning sign if the device’s battery is not recognized as authentic. Other smartphone manufacturers are curbing users and unauthorized repair shops from replacing the battery.

Why it matters: Smartphone manufacturers and Apple say that their actions guarantee the integrity and safety of the batteries by preventing the possible use of counterfeit batteries. Some users have objected citing a right to repair.

Users perceive batteries as consumable:

• Historically, smartphones had externally removable batteries.
• After the introduction of the iPhone, all smartphone OEMs followed Apple by making the battery non-removable.
• This design change was necessary to make smartphones thin and light.
• Batteries are sophisticated components inside a precision-engineered smartphone. Much like other internal components, such as memory or display, they are increasingly difficult and expensive to replace. 
• A botched battery replacement can lead to a fire.
• The historical perception of batteries as consumables is no longer true. 

Why fake batteries are a real problem: 

• Fake replica batteries are inexpensive counterfeits largely from China, made by manufacturers with limited control on quality.
• Statistics show that counterfeit batteries have a much higher prevalence of fires than authentic batteries.
• Detecting counterfeit batteries is not easy without the use of battery intelligence.

Why smartphone OEMs do not sell batteries:

• Replacing the battery inside a smartphone is a complex operation with risk of damage to the battery. 
• Recall the Samsung Note 7 fires were connected to the mechanical sizing of the battery inside the smartphone causing a mechanical dent in the battery.
• To be safe, smartphone manufacturers direct users to qualified repair shops.

What smartphone owners can do:

• Take actions to ensure that your battery outlasts the rest of your smartphone. Avoid super fast charging if you can. Avoid charging overnight to 100%. Avoid hot temperatures.
• If you ever have to get your battery replaced, get it done at an authorized repair shop where the battery can be traced to a trusted manufacturing source.

Some time in August of 2013, hackers breached Yahoo! servers and stole private account information for up to 3 billion users. Verizon Communications received a $350 million discount in the price of its acquisition of Yahoo! in 2017, exemplifying the staggering costs of one single encounter with cyber risk.

The concept of risk and risk management is not new. In 1688, Edward Lloyd set up what would become today Lloyd’s of London to contain the emerging risks of the new and growing maritime trans-Atlantic trade. Since then, the business world has worked diligently to contain such risk in everything from food to the Internet.

Actually, almost everything. One such modern risk that remains inadequately addressed is battery safety, specifically the safety of lithium-ion batteries that are so ubiquitous. To be fair, industry has recognized long time ago the safety hazards surrounding the lithium-ion battery. Battery fires in the early 2000s caused expensive recalls. But they were largely treated as one-off events. These were times when the annual volume of batteries was a few hundred millions. These fires were not treated as an on-going risk. They were seen as failures in manufacturing that could be eliminated by improvements in factories or designs.

Today’s battery shipments have skyrocketed to billions of units and counting. Even a minuscule chance of battery fire becomes a real problem when multiplied by the sheer volume of batteries. Battery failures are an ongoing risk that needs to be contained.

Estimates place the risk of battery fire in the range of a few to tens of parts-per-million (or ppm). One ppm means that for every one million units shipped, there is a risk that one of them will catch fire. It does not mean that one *will* catch fire. It just means that statistically speaking, the probability of a fire is one in a million. Now that seems like a small number. You might tell a precious love that they are “one in a million.” In an industry that ships two billion smartphones annually, that translates to several thousand battery fires annually! Not acceptable! We need to bring this figure down by a factor of 100 or 1,000.

Edward Lloyd’s business was possible because it had its underpinnings in the mathematical advances of probability pioneered by Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat early in the 17th century. In that same vein it is possible to make great improvements in battery safety because it leverages the advances in computation of the past 50 years.

Every smartphone is a miracle device. It contains a processor that is infinitely more powerful than the computer that landed Apollo 11 on the moon. It also contains sophisticated electronics that can measure minute voltages and currents, and in turn it is very telling of the chemical reactions inside the battery. Merge it all with intelligent software, and we can now predict what the battery’s health will be in the future.

But why can’t we just manufacture the perfect battery that will never catch fire? Simply put, it is prohibitively expensive. Consider this: nearly every person with a smartphone is also an amateur photographer. Despite the fact their camera lens is optically deficient, software allows them to take incredible photographs.

The same goes for batteries. Manufacturing batteries in large volumes means that some will have defects. That’s just the balance between quality and cost when it comes to battery manufacturing in large scale. To make matters more challenging, every person will use or abuse their battery in unpredictable ways. It becomes essential to catch and screen these few bad batteries in the field before they become a hazard. Naturally, this is not meant to supersede good manufacturing practices, but rather to complement them in our quest to reduce battery fires to zero.

So how does it work? I talked in the past about electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). It is a workhorse test instrument in battery laboratories around the world. It is capable of measuring the chemical processes that are taking place inside the battery. Now imagine if you had such a similar tool inside your device. With some expertise, you can now start making smart decisions about your battery. This is not a new concept; a similar concept, for instance, allows glucose measuring devices to save the lives of millions of diabetics.

It’s high time we get serious about battery health and safety. Let’s address this risk before it escalates. The spread between device capabilities and battery threats is only growing — let’s get smart and manage potential incidents before they blow up into something bigger.

Everyone’s excited about 5G. And with good reason. All the great things we have been able to do on our smart phones with 4G LTE will multiply into bigger and better things in the 5G Era. We’ll be able to send and receive huge text and image files in the blink of an eye. Entire movies will download in seconds. In short, 5G will make our smart phones vastly more useful as business productivity tools and as entertainment platforms. I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait.

There’s just one thing. The excellent experiences of 5G can’t happen without battery power.

Unfortunately, batteries are a major stumbling block of the smart phone era. Explosions and fires, although rare, are a serious problem. One such mishap is too many.

A little history: Introduced commercially in 1991, lithium-ion batteries are a tremendous advance over previous-generation technology, such as nickel-cadmium and nickel-metal hydride, and they have made the 4G LTE era possible. But in the 5G era, lithium-ion batteries risk being exposed as the weakest link in the chain of 5G-enabling technologies.

This looming catastrophe is no secret. Smart phone manufacturers and network operators I speak with are concerned about 5G and the demands that will be placed on handsets. They know something must be done. But what?

Researchers are working night and day to come up with breakthrough battery technology, such as solid-state batteries or batteries using nano materials. But battery breakthroughs often take a decade or more, and billions of dollars in investments. Much more work needs to be done before these next-generation batteries are ready to be deployed in large volumes. Realistically, we need to accept the fact that 5G will dawn on smart phones equipped with lithium-ion batteries. The only sensible approach is to get those batteries as ready as they can be for the new era.

Briefly, here’s the issue: Every battery has a cathode and an anode, in a substance called the electrolyte. During charging, ions move from the cathode to the anode through the electrolyte. In lithium-ion batteries, tiny tree-like growths called dendrites may form on the anode over repeated charging cycles. These dendrites can grow so large that they eventually reach through, touching the cathode and causing an electrical short, possibly leading to an explosion or fire. Dendrite formation is accelerated by factors that stress the battery, such as rapid charging or overcharging. Damage caused by these stresses accumulates over time.

5G will put stress on batteries as never before, thanks to several factors:

• The higher-frequency bands of 5G require more power. 5G encompasses new frequency bands of 3 GHz to 6 GHz and above 24 GHz. Power consumption increases linearly with frequency, so going from 900 MHz to 6 GHz, for example, incurs a 5x increase in power demand all else being equal.
• Data traffic will increase substantially. Even though 5G is highly efficient, throughput rates will be higher and displays will be larger. More bits will be streaming at rates exceeding 1 Gbit per second, requiring additional power.
• 5G apps will require low latency, about one millisecond. For example, streaming video on a larger screen will sharply reduce idle time for the processor and battery. That means greater power consumption.
• 5G will require denser placement of antennas across the landscape, and until carriers add more antennas, handsets and their batteries will have to work harder.

In all, network operators estimate 25% to 50% increase in power demand.

Preparedness

There is hope, however, if intelligent battery management software is implemented. The first step is to reduce the stress on the battery; the second is to monitor battery health so that danger is spotted before problems occur. These twin tasks are simple in principle but challenging in practice.

To measure the chemical processes at work, it is possible to utilize the electrical current that charges the battery as a kind of messenger. By applying principles similar to sonar, it is possible to retrieve information from the electrical current’s echo about the chemical reactions within the battery. Based on that information, the reactions can be tuned to make them better performing. These same signals also relay information as to any problems that are developing, such as the dendritic formations that produce electrical shorts.

By lessening battery stress and monitoring battery health, doubling battery longevity is a reasonable expectation. Most phone batteries are rated at 500 charging cycles, but that can be increased to 1000. And battery life isn’t the only thing that can be improved. As a battery charges and recharges, it enlarges in size, gaining perhaps 10 percent in volume. Intelligent battery management can cut that swelling in half.

Simply put, intelligent battery management is a must-have for all smart phones. Nothing else does a better job ensuring battery health and safety. As we await the arrival of 5G, there is no need to despair or to become impatient with the slow progress of battery chemistry technology, when intelligent battery management is here today.

Geoffrey Fowler at the Washington Post recently published an article observing that phone battery life is getting worse. I enjoyed my conversations with Geoffrey as he researched the topic. But why is the phone battery life getting worse? Why are batteries not keeping up with the new crop of smartphones? 

Like so many things in life, it is all about energy balance. Our doctors tell us that we need to balance our calories: Calories we eat versus the calories we expand on exercise. And so the smartphone needs to balance its energy stored in the battery versus the energy it spends on use. So I distill this to two simple questions on energy demand and supply:

1. Why is the energy demand growing with increased use of our smartphones?
2. Why can’t we have a bigger battery to supply our growing energy needs in a smartphone?

So let’s tackle the first question by examining the sources that drive energy consumption in a smartphone. There are three parts in your smartphone that are energy hogs:

• Your screen….ok, I am sure you all know that ;
• Your processor….some of you probably know that too ;
• Your radios. Not your FM radio! Radios means the cellular connection, WiFi connection, bluetooth, GPS….anything that communicates with the outside world using radio waves.

Energy consumption for each of these parts depends on the nature of the hardware and you, the user — that’s the length of time you spend on the device. 

The energy used by a screen is quite large, even with the new OLED screens. Screens are getting a bigger numbers of pixels. Each pixel consumes energy. More pixels means more energy.  Every time you turn the screen on, it’s more energy that the battery has to supply.  And that adds up rapidly. 

If you follow various chatrooms, you probably know that “screen time”, meaning the total amount of available battery time with your screen on, is probably about 6 hours, give or take – regardless of what the smartphone maker advertises about all day use or more.

Next is the processor. Fortunately, that piece of hardware used to be a major energy hog but with the new generation of processors from Qualcomm or Apple or Samsung, they have become quite efficient. How much efficient? About twice more efficient than the previous generations from a few years back. All good news, right? well, not quite.

You see, processors have become efficient indeed, but now they are running a lot more frequently than they ever did. Think about an SUV parked in the garage versus a Honda Civic used for Ubering. Which one uses more energy?

A few years ago, we used our smartphones for texting and emailing….now, we stream videos. So while these processors are efficient, they are being taxed by video and social media. Net net, they are consuming more energy from the battery. How can you tell? watch how hot your smartphone becomes when you stream videos or take 4k movies on your device. That’s your processor getting hot.

Let’s talk now about radios. That’s a growing problem for the battery, so much that carriers like AT&T and Verizon in the US, or DoCoMo in Japan are really worried about it.

On one hand, carriers love that you use more and more data…that’s how they make money. But data use means your cellular connection is on, a lot more than before. 

But you say wait, isn’t 5G cellular connection better than LTE? Think of 5G as adding more lanes on the internet superhighway as compared to LTE. It means more cars, a lot more cars, will use the highway. It means more energy will be consumed. And the battery needs to supply this energy.

The FCC is just auctioning a new range of frequencies between 24 GHz and 47 GHz for the future 5G spectrum. By comparison, LTE runs at frequencies between 0.5 GHz and 2 GHz. Why is this important? Energy use goes up with frequency. So by going to the new 5G frequency, energy consumption will grow with it, worsening the burden on the battery. In other words, the future will tax the battery even more!

Bottom line: our smartphones and our user behavior mean our appetite for more energy will continue to grow.

Now we can tackle the second question: Why can’t the device manufacturer put a bigger battery in the smartphone? 

It is simple: Bigger battery capacity means a physically bigger battery. Batteries are improving so slowly such that the only way to give users more battery capacity is by making the device larger or thicker. The recent iPhone XS, XR and XS Max show a clear trend to making larger devices that can hold larger batteries.

Will that be enough for the future? not really. Smartphone sizes can’t get any bigger. At 6 in or greater screen sizes, they are already too large to hold in one hand. They may get a little thicker but not by much. Our human hands determine the optimal physical form for a smartphone.

So what gives? I don’t know yet, but most likely, our behavior and expectations. It is quite likely that users may charge their smartphones more frequently in one day…perhaps charge twice instead of once. Some users might be happy with fewer pixels in their devices. Others may turn off their Facebook and social media apps. 

Regardless of how we adapt to the future of smartphones, the battery will continue to be the weakest link, and the one in most need for innovation.